I see a link on my own blogs' sidebar to The Moderate Voice:
Poll: McCain Overtakes Obama With Five Point Lead Amid Other Polls Showing Obama Weakening
"Hmm", I say to myself. "That seems odd." Click through to the link.
Well, my problem is that ALL of the other polls, most of which are cited by Joe Gandelman in his post, are still showing Obama with a lead. Obviously, someone isn't right.
I think Zogby is great, but I would really look for some type of flaw in the methodology of that survey. I agree, as do most of the polls, that Obama is slipping, but Zogby has him driving off a cliff!
Obama Support
July
August
Difference
Democrats
83%
74%
-9
Women
50%
42%
-8
Catholics
47%
36%
-11
Ages <35
59%
47%
-12
College Grads
51%
40%
-11
Live in Cities
54%
43%
-11
Income <$50,000
53%
46%
-7
Southerners
46%
35%
-11
Those are some serious drop offs in numbers. You really think the events of the past month justify those numbers? I don't. The other polls don't justify those numbers either.
Take a look at this stuff:
- LA Times, Top of the Ticket: Experience a key John McCain advantage in new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll
- CNN: CNN poll of polls: Obama lead cut in half
- Gallup: Gallup Daily: Obama at 45%, McCain at 44%
- Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Where, pray tell, is the corroboration. Are the people Zogby is calling more "in the know" than the people all these other respected polling firms are calling? Are they more likely to vote? My problem isn't that he moved down, he has, at least a little, according to all of the polls above. My problem is Zogby is the only poll that has Obama falling off the cliff. It's the only one that even has him trailing McCain.
What exactly happened that all those under 35's are not voting for Obama? Did McCain's 'life start at conception' response to Pastor Rick Warren suddenly convert all of the pro-choice women to his side? This poll doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Don't get me wrong. I am not a complete homer here. Obama was not my first, second, or even third choice. He is, however, a much better choice that the Senator John McCain of 2008 who bears little resemblance to the Senator John McCain of 2000. I just can't see where these number drop offs are seen in any other poll. These are some serious drops in some core constituencies and the fact that they are not shown anywhere else, to this extent, makes me skeptical of their accuracy.
Either way, I think a serious convention bump will be forthcoming regardless of these poll numbers. I am also confident that the Dems have a complete plan for countering the fear-mongering fest that will most likely occur in Minneapolis at the Republic(an) National Convention. The aren't going to just sit back like they did four years ago.
Every one, relax a little. I still can't believe that HIM got elected once and inaugurated twice but I still think that the American people are going to make up for it this time.
Comments welcome,
Pat McGovern
P.S. - If the Obama campaign takes this seriously than it pretty much slam dunks Joe Biden as your VP nominee. Sphere: Related Content
