Obama wins?

I am rather amazed by the reaction of the pundits on MSNBC. Almost universally, with the exception of Gene Robinson, they seem to think that John McCain won the debate on 'points'. I did not get that impression at all.

Interestingly, nearly every one of them, David Gregory, Chris Matthews, Pat Buchanan, Andrea Mitchell etc. qualified their assessment with the idea that 'stylistically' McCain lost points. It's the old "Well I think he won but people might have thought he looked like an old jerk." cover your a$$ excuse. The media didn't realize until the next day that Richard Nixon lost to John Kennedy in that debate in 1960. They thought Nixon may have won and certainly didn't do worse than draw. They didn't realize the reaction that people would have to his appearance. Everyone seems to be instinctively getting cover just in case they misread tonight.

I think that will have a lot to do with how people perceived John McCain tonight. He never looked at Barack Obama. Never addressed him directly, despite Jim Lehrer's entreaties to do so. He always is stiff, to some extent as a result of his war injuries, but he seems even more so at times tonight.

It was mentioned repeatedly, on many blogs and news items throughout the day, that he needed to avoid that 'gotcha' smirky laugh of his. It looks creepy. He didn't avoid it enough.

To be perfectly honest, I found myself caught up in how McCain looked saying things rather than what he was saying more than once.
Continue reading ^>> That isn't good. I wonder if someone with a more apolitical eye might have been so affected as well?

Beyond the appearance issue, I think Obama did, at the very least, match up to McCain on most of the questions presented. Indeed, on many of them, he kicked his butt.

McCain revealed very little of how he would govern tonight, beyond some very broad strokes. And yes, saying you will cut all earmarks, qualifies as a broad, not to mention unrealistic, stroke.

Obama actually answered the questions, at least, for the most part. Several times, he had to bring the discussion back to the point at hand because McCain tried to control the narrative and had taken a sharp left or right turn with his answer.

McCain, on several occasions, told stories instead of answering the question. I say instead of because when he was done with the story, he would invariably continue with an answer on an analogous topic which was more to his liking than the original question.

The people who had to be convinced tonight wanted to know what these two men would do when they become President of the United States of America. If they want to know who you are, that question would apply far more to Senator Obama than Senator McCain. Nevertheless, Senator McCain persisted in telling them who he is rather than what he would do.

I think that because the electorate is looking for that, this debate may have indeed been disastrous for John McCain. If you were looking for specifics, you got none from his side.

Obama was (to steal from Andrew Sullivan) commanding. He had a firm grasp of every issue thrown his way. I think he gave a few too many derisive chuckles at McCain's responses. He also needs to be more aware of his facial expressions when he is listening to McCain. The man may have said a few doozies but you need to control how you react and respond more diligently.

I think the amorphous middle/independent/undecided people liked what they saw and got from Barack Obama tonight. I don't think even those who were leaning towards John McCain got anything they were looking for. He secured veterans, neocons (with his neocon view of Russia and Ukraine), and probably reinforced the social conservatives a little. That's not a gain, that's treading water.

Even if you posit that he won the debate tonight there is the problem that he needed to win it by a lot more than he did. I don't think he won it at all. That is a big problem for his campaign.

If you take the Sarah Palin - Katie Couric interview as evidence of how the Vice-Presidential debate might go, than this campaign is in some serious trouble.

I have complete confidence that somehow, someway, John McCain will find something to 'stir up a hornet's nest' with in the next week or so. It's what he does best. Maybe, sometime, it'll actually help his campaign. But if it isn't soon, although it may be his only hope, he may bury himself deeper than it is possible to recover from.


Comments welcome,

Pat McGovern

It's got electoral votes. It's what politicians crave.

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